The new National Intelligence Estimate released the other day should make everyone think a little harder about Iran.
The report contradicts the 2005 NIE by saying that U.S. intelligence agencies are now fairly certain that Iran froze its nuclear weapons program several years ago in response to international pressure, although it continued to enrich uranium. It has become the hot news item overnight, which is not surprising considering the stakes involved as the more conservative elements of the administration are taking a harder line against Iran.
So depending on which side you’re on it’s either come in just the nick of time to keep trigger-happy neocons from embarking on yet another misguided military escapade, or it’s a not-so-veiled attempt by the “diplomatic approach” crowd to use the intelligence community to reinforce their own point of view.
A few things to keep in mind:
First, the Wildebeest is currently in the process of reading a book by a British writer who spent over a year traveling around Iran (and attempting to avoid politics while he was at it). One of the striking things about his experience is that, nearly every single day he’s there, he gets ripped off by somebody. Often it’s a cab driver who tries to exploit the guy’s desire to get close to “real” Iranians by establishing some sort of bond with him (taking him to a cafe, introducing him to friends), and then charging exorbitant amounts for the time they spent in brotherly conversation.
The Wildebeest has heard this from other people who are familiar with Iranian culture–that being bad-ass negotiators is basically something they learn in the womb over there. So, given the fact that the main strategic advantage of having nuclear weapons is not using them, but making sure that other people know you have them, it would make sense that the Iranians would be trying to exploit international proliferation fears while avoiding the many costs and dangers associated with actually having the things.
The book also describes the Iranian fascination with conspiracy theories. Sitting in a cafe with a friend overlooking a river that’s been dry for three months, the author listens to all the locals’ theories about the reasons for the lack of water: an ex-president has a mansion upstream and is diverting the water to irrigate his pistachio orchards, the government made a secret deal with the Kuwaitis and sold the water to them, etc. When the author suggests that it might have something to do with the ongoing drought in the region, everyone rolls their eyes and tells him not to be so naive.
Paranoia can lead one to an irrational sense of victimization, but it can also enable one to construct devilishly clever schemes to counter the imagined plots.
Second, the intelligence agencies are generally the more politically conservative agencies of the federal government. There are lots of ex-Peace Corps volunteers working at places like USAID who are usually pretty skeptical of anything having to do with the military, but people who work for the CIA are usually not afraid of committing to whatever it takes to keep America #1. So people (like Michael Ledeen) who think that this is part of some liberal conspiracy to aid and abet the enemy should think twice. They should also take some time to wonder why the same people who were saying that intelligence hadn’t been deliberatly manipulated before the Iraq war are now so eager to accuse the intel community of politicization.
Finally, the report has been greeted with huge relief by American allies, especially in Europe, which had been struggling to reconcile the need to keep nukes out of Iranian hands with the need to restrain an overly-aggressive United States from jumping the gun. No rational country would accept another nation’s opinions as the sole yardstick for evaluating its own interests, but if the entire rest of the world is saying something different then maybe that country should stop and at least reconsider. After all, nearly everyone outside the US thought Iraq was a pretty bad idea from the beginning.
Everyone needs to keep in mind that this remains an extremely ambiguous situation, and we should all take some time to make sure the wool isn’t being pulled over our eyes.